About this Blog:

Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights, a blog hosted by the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), is a unique resource for journalists, policymakers, scholars, activists and others interested in understanding Venezuelan politics and human rights.

The contributors call it as they see it, providing insights on Venezuela’s politics that go beyond the polarized pro-Chávez/anti-Chávez debate. The views expressed in the posts are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect WOLA’s institutional positions.

About the Bloggers:

David Smilde, moderator of the blog, is a WOLA Senior Fellow and Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of Georgia. He has lived in or worked on Venezuela since 1992. He is co-editor of Venezuela's Bolivarian Democracy: Participation, Politics and Culture under Chávez (Duke 2011).

Hugo Pérez Hernáiz is Associate Professor of Sociology at the Universidad Central de Venezuela.

Rebecca Hanson is a graduate student in sociology at the University of Georgia doing doctoral research on police reform and citizen participation in Venezuela.

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December 16, 2012

Results and Futures

David Smilde

Here is a summary of the results.

Opposition

Hold: Miranda, Lara, Amazonas
Gain: None

PSUV

Hold: Anzoategui, Apure, Aragua, Barinas, Bolívar, Cojedes, Delta Amacuro, Falcón, Guárico, Mérida, Portuguesa, Sucre, Trujillo, Vargas, Yaracuy
Gain: Carabobo, Monagas, Nueva Esparta, Táchira, Zulia

Taken as a referendum on Chávez’s legacy and the carryover of his charisma to other candidates, this result provides clear reason for celebration for the Chávez coalition. It is, of course, a brutal result for the opposition which lost opposition strongholds such as Zulia, Carabobo and Táchira—the last two by large margins—and gained none. However, it was not a fatal result insofar as Henrique Capriles squeaked out a win in Miranda.

Taken as a primary, the vote provided some clarity for the opposition. Capriles won on a night that most other opposition candidates lost, including his most viable rival, Pablo Pérez. The only other opposition candidates to win are “dissidents” who were pro-Chávez only a couple of years ago. Thus there is little chance that they could be viable national leaders within the opposition coalition.